FV Q1 // The First Revaluation of 2026

Four weeks into the season, the first official FV Score review is complete.

This is not a power ranking update. FV was built to separate structure from results, then periodically ask whether the evidence has become strong enough to change what we believe about the franchise itself. The methodology only reconsiders structural scores at predetermined checkpoints, with Post Week 4 serving as the first in-season review. 

Read about the FV Scoring Methodology.

That distinction matters, because plenty of teams have records that look better or worse than their underlying structure.

The revised board below reflects that.

Jacksonville was our biggest preseason miss

No team forced a larger reevaluation than Jacksonville.

The Jaguars moved from 61.3 to 70.2, an 8.9-point jump, and climbed from 19th to 10th overall. More importantly, Jacksonville exposed what was probably our biggest preseason miss.

We wanted more evidence before buying into the late-season surge Jacksonville produced under a first-year staff. We also had questions about the early draft results under James Gladstone — questions that have not completely disappeared.

What the first month has made much harder to question is the coaching staff.

Liam Coen and his staff increasingly look like the real deal. They have shown an ability to maximize the talent already on the roster, create answers schematically and get meaningful production on both sides of the football. That matters enormously in a model built to evaluate the structure behind the results.

Gladstone deserves some credit as well. His willingness to spend draft capital on players with specific or niche roles has produced early dividends. The longer-term question is whether the opportunity cost of those investments eventually creates holes elsewhere on the roster.

Four weeks cannot answer that.

But they have provided enough evidence to change our view of Jacksonville today.

The Jaguars move firmly into the Contender tier.

The Chargers are the biggest negative correction

No team took a larger hit in the first FV review than the Chargers.

Los Angeles falls from 72.8 to 64.8, an 8.0-point decline, and drops from Contender to Mid.

The record is part of the story, but the bigger concern is the marriage between Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel.

Herbert has looked uncomfortable in the new offense, and some of that may simply be the normal turbulence that comes with learning a new system. But there is also a broader question about whether the offensive vision is fully aligned.

Harbaugh is a former quarterback with deeply held ideas about how offense should be played. McDaniel built his reputation as one of the league’s most creative offensive designers. If Harbaugh is placing constraints on how freely McDaniel can build and call the offense, the Chargers may not be getting the full benefit of the very thing that made McDaniel attractive in the first place.

That does not mean the pairing cannot work.

It does mean the early returns have created legitimate questions about coaching fit, scheme integration and Herbert’s comfort inside the system.

The adjustment period may eventually prove temporary. For now, though, the first four weeks have challenged too many of the assumptions behind the preseason score to leave Los Angeles in the Contender tier.

Cleveland is moving exactly where our preseason thesis pointed

Cleveland rises from 63.2 to 67.2, a 4.0-point increase, and climbs from 16th to 13th.

The Browns entered the season with an Ascending trajectory and are now 3–1 after three straight wins. The record alone is not the reason for the move, but the first month has done more to validate the preseason structural case than challenge it. 

That is enough to push Cleveland from Mid into Contender.

Seattle and Kansas City move into Elite

The Elite tier expands from three teams to four.

Seattle rises from 75.6 to 78.0, climbing from fourth to second overall. The Seahawks have gone 3–1, rebounded from their lone loss, and continued to show the kind of organizational stability and adaptability FV already valued highly in the preseason. Their Week 4 win over the Chargers came despite being without their top two running backs. 

Kansas City moves from 74.4 to 76.9, a 2.5-point gain, and crosses into Elite territory as well. The Chiefs are 4–0, and their Week 4 win in Las Vegas reinforced the kind of balanced, resilient structure that has defined the organization for years. 

Philadelphia moves the other way, falling from 77.0 to 75.7 and dropping from Elite to Contender. That is a modest structural adjustment, not a collapse.

Chicago keeps confirming the preseason belief

Chicago climbs from 72.4 to 75.1, moving from ninth to sixth overall.

The Bears are 3–1, and the broader point is not simply that they are winning. The early evidence continues to reinforce the preseason belief in the coaching and organizational structure. We scored Chicago as having the highest-rated backup QB situation in the league prior to the season, and that has paid huge dividends while Caleb Williams recovers from his injury.

Chicago has won in multiple ways and has already shown enough defensive stability to warrant a higher valuation.

Las Vegas is the other major riser

The Raiders move from 56.0 to 61.8, up 5.8 points, and climb seven spots from 27th to 20th.

Las Vegas is 3–1 and just pushed Kansas City in a 30–27 game. Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns in that loss, while the team continues to show more competitive stability than the preseason score suggested. 

The Raiders remain in the Mid tier, which is important. FV is recognizing improvement without pretending four weeks erased every long-term question.

Pittsburgh slips into Rebuild

Pittsburgh falls from 55.5 to 53.4, moving from Mid into Rebuild despite sitting at 2–2.

This is another case where we believe the record is giving the Steelers more credit than the underlying structure deserves.

Their veteran roster has found ways to manufacture two wins, but that does not necessarily mean the larger concerns have improved. The Week 1 victory came against an Atlanta team starting Cooper Rush at quarterback. Pittsburgh’s Week 3 win over Cincinnati was clearly its strongest performance of the season, but four weeks in, we still aren’t convinced the Steelers are structurally better than several teams they have already beaten.

Put Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Atlanta into hypothetical best-of-three series today, and we’d favor both the Bengals and Falcons. Atlanta in particular looks substantially different with Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback.

That does not erase Pittsburgh’s wins. Winning games matters.

But FV is trying to determine what those wins tell us about the organization going forward.

So far, we see a veteran team capable of stealing games without enough evidence that the underlying franchise trajectory has materially improved.

The standings say 2–2.

FV says Rebuild.

And those two statements do not have to conflict.

The first quarter moved the board — but did not rewrite it

The largest positive moves were:

Jacksonville +8.9Las Vegas +5.8Cleveland +4.0Chicago +2.7Kansas City +2.5Seattle +2.4Baltimore +2.4

The largest negative moves were:

LA Chargers -8.0Tampa Bay -2.5Houston -2.2Pittsburgh -2.1Philadelphia -2.0

That distribution is important.

Most teams did not move dramatically.

That is how FV should behave.

The model is not supposed to chase the standings after four weeks. It is supposed to move when the evidence changes the structural evaluation.

Tier movement after Week 4

The most important tier changes:

UP

• Seattle // Contender → Elite
• Kansas City // Contender → Elite
• Jacksonville // Mid → Contender
• Cleveland // Mid → Contender

DOWN

• Philadelphia // Elite → Contender
• LA Chargers // Contender → Mid

That is only six tier changes across 32 franchises.

Again: intentional.

The preseason board remains the receipt

The preseason FV board is preserved as its own historical valuation.

Through the first four weeks, the higher-preseason-FV team went 36–28 head-to-head, a 56.25% win rate.

FV is not a game-picking model, but that record is worth tracking as an external validation check.

The more important benchmark begins now.

The Post Week 4 board becomes a new valuation vintage.

The next formal review comes after Week 9 and the trade deadline.

Until then:

FV monitors continuously. It values periodically.